How much is facebook really worth and investment strategy
Frankly, I don't really buy the notion that facebook is worth billions of dollars, based on the Microsoft's 240 Million invement for 1.6 percent of the company stake. It is just stupid for Microsoft to do so.
My issue is not that facebook is fad, which could well be. A year ago, maybe 2 years, Myspace is the king of the social networking. Now, it seems it is no longer cool, at least in the US market. Online market changes quickly and Microsoft is trying to pick the gold. Yet, in the California gold rush, levis makes the money. Levis' jean is the today's online infrascture and infrascture and technologies.
The investment strategy for online properties should be: Invest in the best technology company, as soon as a viable business model is clearly applicable.
My issue is not that facebook is fad, which could well be. A year ago, maybe 2 years, Myspace is the king of the social networking. Now, it seems it is no longer cool, at least in the US market. Online market changes quickly and Microsoft is trying to pick the gold. Yet, in the California gold rush, levis makes the money. Levis' jean is the today's online infrascture and infrascture and technologies.
The investment strategy for online properties should be: Invest in the best technology company, as soon as a viable business model is clearly applicable.
Otherwise, you are chasing the gold in hope you are at the right place at the right time. And Once you got your gold, noone will take it a way.
The sorry state of the mobile world
I am totally turned off by the mobile industry in the US. In the past couple months, I have been working for a mobile startup, concentrating on the content part of the business. And let me tell you, it is NOT easy.
There are so many issues related to this market, it is not even fun to talk about it. Here are my rants:
There are so many issues related to this market, it is not even fun to talk about it. Here are my rants:
- 1. As of now (jan 2008), rumor is that Sprint is planning a big layoff. Sorry for the Sprint employees, but it does bring a smile to my face. The one thing better to deal with Big 4 carriers is to deal only with 3.
- Why can't every handset supports WAP Push or SMS with embedded link or both? I don't care which one, just give me one works on every phone.
- And why not turn on all the features on the phone for messaging and browsing. Do you know how much trouble we need to take to configure the phones for proper APN?
- Whoever invented the "genius" ides of seperating message inboxes of SMS, WAP Push and MMS, you should be shamed. Can you image your Outlook has a folder of text email, a folder for email with pictures, and a folder for emails with URLs? Message is a message, treat them all the same (Same folder, some notification and same everything)
- And why message is just a message? Carrier has this funny habbit to seperate messages (SMS, MMS) and data into different plans. Why? Just because they are technically different? SMS is obviously more profittable for carriers (0.10 cents per 160 characters, most of messages are even short), but please, I just need one plan that treats messages just as regular data usage.
- If user is not provisioned to go to the web or do something, let him/her know, plainly. I hate getting support phone calls on "didn't get the message" or "click onthe link, but it goes to a crappy place (carrier portal)"
- And for a campaign, how much testing do I need to do? For every carrier, every popular phones and every content formats, with formats, screen sizes and file sizes?
- I have a dream and one day there is one dirty-cheap unlimited plan, so no one needs to worry about the "cost" of going to a content link.
- Why Pay As You Go customers are second-rated citizens?
- Why WAP headers do not contain phone numbers and requires content providers to verify the phone number to prevent spoofing? Having users to pre-register the phone number or type it in the tiny phone keypad is a torture, for smooth user experiences.
NetFlix, BlockBuster
With the BlockBuster Total Access program, I am now a BB customer, at least until BB hijacks the price in the future.
Total Access program is a good example how a brick and mortar store fights back against an Internet based business model. More importantly, how BB can fights back using its physical infrastructure. The netflix effect forces BB to cut its profit margin while providing better services.
Currently, when I return a mailed DVD to the BB store, the DVD goes back to a warehouse before shipping it out again. However, BlockBuster could do better. it is quite easy for a store clerk to verify the DBD, print off the mail label for the next customer and ship it out right away, which not only saves the postage cost but also improves turn around.
Of course, until the next battle realizes, which is the On Demand Download.
Total Access program is a good example how a brick and mortar store fights back against an Internet based business model. More importantly, how BB can fights back using its physical infrastructure. The netflix effect forces BB to cut its profit margin while providing better services.
Currently, when I return a mailed DVD to the BB store, the DVD goes back to a warehouse before shipping it out again. However, BlockBuster could do better. it is quite easy for a store clerk to verify the DBD, print off the mail label for the next customer and ship it out right away, which not only saves the postage cost but also improves turn around.
Of course, until the next battle realizes, which is the On Demand Download.
Tags - why is it interesting and doomed
Tag is a very interesting thing. Its power lies in the lack of power of current content analysis technologies. We don’t have a program to analyze an image or an audio or a video. Thus tags allows people to mannual apply "meaning" to a piece of content, thus, make it searchable.
Tag is the whitebox version of the search. You define it, you get it. Current search is more like you define it, and you use SEO, you might get it.
Again, it has all the problems of current search engine. Tag Spam is bound to happen. After watching blogs are filled with porn and junk comments, I am waiting, sadly, for the first tag spam to occur.
Tag is the whitebox version of the search. You define it, you get it. Current search is more like you define it, and you use SEO, you might get it.
Again, it has all the problems of current search engine. Tag Spam is bound to happen. After watching blogs are filled with porn and junk comments, I am waiting, sadly, for the first tag spam to occur.
SEO
There was one time I held high respect for Google and Yahoo. Now I am left with only emptiness and bitter taste in the mouth. In the past, they were fast and revelent, now, they are the SEOed.
What I want is not the world’s information. What I need is the quality information.
PageRank may be the best thing besides bread slicer, it is now a time for it to go. Google, please don’t spend time kick out people who are trying to commit click fraud or swing page ranks. The fraud is at the core.
What I want is not the world’s information. What I need is the quality information.
PageRank may be the best thing besides bread slicer, it is now a time for it to go. Google, please don’t spend time kick out people who are trying to commit click fraud or swing page ranks. The fraud is at the core.
Netflix & Shipping Cost
I read an interesting article about NetFlix and the cost of postage. Let’s say, I subscribe to its 3 DVD a time package, which is about $18 per month. Assume I am a cheap movie fanatic, I watch all the movies as soon as they arrive and return as soon as I finish. So, my "turn-over’" is 2 or 3 times per week. So, the postage cost of a hard-core movie viewer, the cost is probably 2.5 (a nice round number between 2 and 3 ), * 3 (#of DVDs) * 4 (# of weeks in a month) * $.30 (average of assumed postage cost) * 2 (round trip to the warehouse), which is $18.00.
That leaves little room for operation, payroll, marketing and a decent profit. Again, we are talking about profit margin for worst customers here.
Can NetFlix do better? Of course. For one, once a DVD is out of the warehouse, what is the point of having it back in the warehouse to be shipped out again? I think this will be a great application for social network web applications, besides their usual dating and job appeals. Imagine LinkedIn partner with netflix and the surprise to receive a DVD from a friend.
That leaves little room for operation, payroll, marketing and a decent profit. Again, we are talking about profit margin for worst customers here.
Can NetFlix do better? Of course. For one, once a DVD is out of the warehouse, what is the point of having it back in the warehouse to be shipped out again? I think this will be a great application for social network web applications, besides their usual dating and job appeals. Imagine LinkedIn partner with netflix and the surprise to receive a DVD from a friend.
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